The Mathematical Secret to Making Life’s Biggest Decisions
Have you ever agonized over whether to accept a job offer or keep searching? Wondered if you should put an offer on a house or wait for something better? Or perhaps you’ve asked yourself how many people you should date before settling down with “the one”?
If so, mathematicians have a surprising answer for you: 37%.
What Is the 37% Rule and Why Should You Care?
The 37% Rule (also known as the “Optimal Stopping Theory”) is a mathematical principle that can help you make better decisions when faced with multiple sequential options. Whether you’re hiring employees, apartment hunting, or even looking for love, this rule provides a framework to maximize your chances of finding the best possible outcome.
Here’s the essence of the rule: When you need to choose from a set of options that appear sequentially, and you can’t go back to previous options, you should explore and reject the first 37% of your options. Then, select the next option that’s better than anything you’ve seen so far.
This isn’t just random advice, it’s mathematically proven to give you approximately a 37% chance of selecting the very best option, which is as good as it gets under these constraints.
The Science Behind the Number
Where does this magical 37% come from? The mathematics gets complicated quickly, but it all boils down to 1/e, where e is the exponential constant (approximately 2.71828), a fundamental mathematical constant discovered by Jacob Bernoulli in 1683.
The 37% Rule has been studied extensively in mathematics, where it’s often called “The Secretary Problem”, a scenario where you need to hire the best secretary from a pool of applicants, interviewing them one by one without the ability to go back to previously rejected candidates.
Applying the 37% Rule to Your Life’s Biggest Decisions
Finding Love: When to Stop Dating and Settle Down
Perhaps the most intriguing application of this rule is in the realm of relationships. If you’re actively dating and looking for a long-term partner, the 37% Rule suggests that if you estimate you’ll be dating between the ages of 18 and 40 (a 22-year window), you should spend the first 37% of that time (about 8 years, until age 26) dating without committing to anyone.
During this “exploration phase,” you’re gathering information about what you value in relationships and what your “best so far” partner looks like. Then, after age 26, you should be prepared to commit to the next person who’s better than anyone you’ve dated before.
As one example from the Gimlet podcast Science Vs, if a 15-year-old plans to be married by 35, giving her 20 years of dating, she should use the first 7.4 years (until age 22) to explore, then be ready to commit when she meets someone better than all previous partners.
House Hunting: Finding Your Dream Home
The same principle applies when looking for a new home. If you’ve given yourself a month to find an apartment, spend the first 11 days (37% of 30) simply exploring options without making any commitments. Take notes, establish your preferences, and identify your “best so far” property.
After day 11, be prepared to immediately commit, deposit and all, to the very first place that beats your benchmark. According to optimal stopping theory, this approach gives you the best mathematical chance of finding the ideal property.
Career Decisions: Choosing the Right Job
When weighing career opportunities, the 37% Rule can be helpful, especially for those early in their careers. If you estimate you’ll have a 40-year career span, the first 15 years should be somewhat exploratory, trying different roles, industries, or companies to understand what truly engages you.
After this period, when a job opportunity comes along that’s better than anything you’ve experienced before, that’s when you should commit more deeply and potentially stay for the long term.
The Psychology of Explore vs. Exploit
While mathematics gives us the 37% Rule as an optimal strategy, psychology tells us that humans don’t always behave so rationally. We tend to fall somewhere on the spectrum between “exploration” and “exploitation.”
The Exploration-Exploitation Tradeoff
This fundamental dilemma in decision-making asks: Should you go with a guaranteed “win” (exploit) or risk going somewhere else for an unknown outcome (explore)?
Research published in Nature by Addicott and colleagues suggests that the extremes of being too explorative or too exploitative leave us at a disadvantage:
– Over-exploiters become stuck in ruts, lack motivation, and get bored
– Over-explorers lack expertise and never fully experience anything in depth
The most advantageous behaviors occur at a balance point between exploration and exploitation. This balance varies among individuals and across the lifespan, teenagers and entrepreneurs tend to explore more, while adults and managers typically exploit more.
Quick Self-Assessment: Are You an Explorer or Exploiter?
Ask yourself these three questions to gauge where you fall on the spectrum:
– When visiting a city you know vaguely well, would you go to a restaurant you know is nice, or try somewhere new?
– If told a gambling machine has a payout of $50, would you stay and play or explore to see if others have a bigger payout?
– When playing a game, do you tend to stick to the same tactics or mix it up each time?
If you chose the first option in most cases, you’re likely more of an exploiter. If you chose the second option, you’re probably more of an explorer.
The Limitations of the 37% Rule in Real Life
While the 37% Rule provides a useful framework, real life is messier than mathematical models. Here are some important limitations to consider:
Relationships Are Complex
The biggest challenge in applying this rule to relationships is that human connections don’t follow neat probability curves:
What if your perfect match is the very first person you date?
People change over time, making early assessments potentially unreliable
The decision isn’t yours alone, relationships require mutual interest
A single date (or even several) rarely reveals someone’s true character
Practical Constraints
Other real-world factors can complicate application of the 37% Rule:
You don’t always know how many options you’ll have available
The quality of options might not be evenly distributed over time
External deadlines or pressures might force decisions before you reach the optimal stopping point
New options might become available that weren’t considered in the original set
Making Better Decisions with the 37% Rule – Practical Tips
Despite its limitations, the 37% Rule offers valuable insights for decision-making. Here’s how to apply it practically:
1. Define Your Search Parameters
Before using the 37% Rule, clearly define:
Your timeline (how long you can spend searching)
Your must-have criteria (what’s non-negotiable)
Your nice-to-have criteria (what would be a bonus)
2. Use the Exploration Phase Wisely
During the initial 37% of your search:
Take notes on what you like and dislike about each option
Refine your understanding of what matters most to you
Identify patterns in your preferences
Establish a “best so far” benchmark to compare future options against
3. Be Ready to Commit When the Time Comes
After your exploration phase:
Trust the process and be prepared to commit when you find an option that beats your benchmark
Avoid the temptation to keep searching “just in case” something better comes along
Remember that the goal is finding an excellent option, not necessarily the theoretically perfect one
4. Balance Mathematics with Intuition
The 37% Rule provides a framework, but don’t ignore:
– Gut feelings that might signal something important
– External factors that might make one option particularly time-sensitive
– Unique opportunities that might not fit neatly into your evaluation criteria
Finding Your Balance
The most valuable insight from the mathematics of the 37% Rule and the psychology of exploration-exploitation is that balance is key. Too much exploration leads to perpetual dissatisfaction and missed opportunities, while too much exploitation leads to settling and wondering “what if?”
As Brian Christian notes in his book “Algorithms to Live By”: “The 37% rule is not merely an intuitively satisfying compromise between looking and leaping. It is the provably optimal solution.”
Perhaps the most comforting aspect of the 37% Rule is that even the mathematically optimal solution only succeeds about 37% of the time. This reminds us that perfect decision-making is impossible, even with the best approach, we’ll still make suboptimal choices sometimes.
Conclusion: Making Peace with Imperfect Choices
The 37% Rule gives us a starting point for making better decisions, but ultimately, life is too complex for any single formula to guarantee perfect outcomes. What matters most is making thoughtful choices with the information available, being willing to commit when the time is right, and finding peace with the inherent uncertainty of decision-making.
So the next time you’re faced with a major life decision, whether it’s choosing a home, a job, or a life partner, consider using the 37% Rule as a guide. Spend time exploring, establish your standards, and then be ready to commit when something exceptional comes along.
Just remember that the goal isn’t finding perfection, it’s finding something wonderful that enriches your life, even if there might theoretically be better options out there somewhere. After all, a good decision made with confidence often leads to better outcomes than an endless search for the hypothetical perfect choice.
What decision are you currently facing where you might apply the 37% Rule? Whether you’re naturally an explorer or an exploiter, finding that sweet spot between sampling options and making a commitment might just be the key to making your next big decision with confidence.
